Thanks for subscribing!




that's the noise circulating from Newsweek Newsletter. Newsweek Newsletter sign-up >

Taiwan's top diplomat said he couldn't speak on the authenticity of a purported Russian intelligence document that claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping had plans to annex the island nation this fall.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan's minister of foreign affairs, said on Wednesday that his country would have to prepare regardless. "No matter if or when China decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves," he told reporters in Taipei.

During a defense committee hearing in the island's legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia's Federal Security Service calling themself "Wind of Change." The foreign minister said he wasn't able to verify the alleged FSB document, but said Taiwan's own intelligence services were closely monitoring relevant chatter.

The letter in question is part of a series published by France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, a human rights lawyer who runs, a website documenting abuses in Russian jails. Osechkin claims to have received seven letters since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The FSB whistleblower has painted a detailed picture of fear and chaos inside Russia's principal intelligence service, where apparently none but a select few were aware of Putin's plans.

Christo Grozev, the executive director of investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said earlier this month that his FSB contacts believe the whistleblower to be authentic, even if they didn't agree with the conclusions of his analysis.

In the fourth letter to Osechkin, dated March 9, the author describes the difficult position in which Moscow has put Beijing because of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, a move that united the West and turned Russia into such a pariah that China would find it hard to offer support.

"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow."

The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."

Based on G-101 Algorithm (02.28.22 ( the probability of this event occurring is 72.18%, which is within the range of it "likely may happen." Based on pass perform on "economic issue" a subjective probability (SP tag) of 85.25% would the event a certain probability. We plan to publish G-101 Algorithm funds as they occur.

Sidenote: On January 3, 2022, G-101 Algorithm presented its Economic Report for 2022. One of its findings had an SP tag on the question: Would Russia instigate a crisis with Ukraine?

Here are the subjective probabilities by dates with SP tags confirming the final conclusion.

01.03.22 +74.12 SP (suggests a 74% subjective probabilities)

01.10.22 +71.65 SP

01.24.22 +79.93 SP

01.31.22 +79.42 SP

02.07.22 +83.85 SP

02.14.22 +89.40 SP

02.21.22 +90.01 SP

Thursday, February 24, 2022
Russia invades Ukraine.

On 02.28.22 CBU with its proprietary algorithm G-01 began tracking the 2022 China invasion of Twain's subjective probability model.

CBU elected to disclose our SP tags based on the content of this article.

2 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All